América vs Guadalajara
Our model puts a Guadalajara win at 83.1% in this Liga MX fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.83 to 3.44.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,255 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 75% and 85% came in 83% of the time — 47 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 79.2%, so the two are within 3.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Guadalajara at 2.55, which implies about 39.2%. Our model has it at 83.1% — 43.9 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1526 against 1496, a gap of 30 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Guadalajara are hard to beat
Guadalajara have gone 7 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.