Amed SFK vs Besiktas
Our model puts a Besiktas win at 57.7% in this Süper Lig fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.15 to 2.06.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,354 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.6% of the time — 239 fixtures in that band. That is 9 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
Besiktas carry a rating of 1614 against 1511 for Amed SFK, a gap of 103 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Besiktas's attack should find room against Amed SFK's defence, by 116 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Besiktas are on a run
Besiktas arrive on 4 straight wins, part of 4 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
How often they shoot
Besiktas take 15.6 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Behind the defence
78.2% of the shots on target Besiktas face do not end up in the net, against 67.7% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.