Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg
Our model puts a Werder Bremen win at 37.6% in this Bundesliga fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.29 to 1.25.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Werder Bremen at 2.2, which implies about 45.5%. Our model has it at 37.6% — 7.9 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
FC Augsburg are on a run
FC Augsburg arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 3 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 28.7%: roughly one simulation in 3 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.