Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba

Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 23:30

⚡

Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 39% confidence

Win probability

41%

Vasco da Gama wins

26%

Draw

33%

Coritiba wins

xG Home

1.44

Vasco da Gama

Blowout %

39%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.27

Coritiba

Analysis

Our model puts a Vasco da Gama win at 40.8% in this Brasileirao fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.44 to 1.27.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1479 against 1500, a gap of 22 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Margin risk

Our blowout flag reads 38.6%: roughly one simulation in 3 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.

Published 12 September 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export