Trabzonspor vs Galatasaray

Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 17:00

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Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 23% confidence

Win probability

27%

Trabzonspor wins

24%

Draw

49%

Galatasaray wins

xG Home

1.17

Trabzonspor

Blowout %

23%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.67

Galatasaray

Analysis

Our model puts a Galatasaray win at 48.6% in this Süper Lig fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.17 to 1.67.

The ratings gap

Galatasaray carry a rating of 1757 against 1595 for Trabzonspor, a gap of 162 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.

Attack against defence

The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Galatasaray's attack should find room against Trabzonspor's defence, by 180 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.

Published 12 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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