Toulouse vs Le Havre AC

Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 18:45

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Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 42% confidence

Win probability

49%

Toulouse wins

25%

Draw

26%

Le Havre AC wins

xG Home

1.57

Toulouse

Blowout %

42%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.06

Le Havre AC

Analysis

Our model puts a Toulouse win at 49% in this Ligue 1 fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.57 to 1.06.

Margin risk

Our blowout flag reads 41.7%: roughly one simulation in 2 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.

Market odds

1.83

Toulouse

3.60

Draw

4.10

Le Havre AC

Published 12 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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