Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa
Our model puts an Aston Villa win at 45.1% in this Premier League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.14 to 1.49.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Tottenham Hotspur at 2.0, which implies about 50%. Our model has it at 29% — 21 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Aston Villa carry a rating of 1861 against 1727 for Tottenham Hotspur, a gap of 134 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Aston Villa's attack should find room against Tottenham Hotspur's defence, by 126 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 25%: roughly one simulation in 4 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.