Sheffield Wednesday vs Stockport County
Our model puts a Sheffield Wednesday win at 38.1% in this League One fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.35 to 1.29.
The ratings gap
Stockport County carry a rating of 1535 against 1434 for Sheffield Wednesday, a gap of 101 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Stockport County's attack should find room against Sheffield Wednesday's defence, by 129 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Sheffield Wednesday are on a run
Sheffield Wednesday arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 3 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
Sheffield Wednesday are off their season peak
Sheffield Wednesday peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1434 today, 66 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 32.3%: roughly one simulation in 3 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.