Sevilla vs Barcelona
Our model puts a Barcelona win at 65.3% in this La Liga fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.89 to 2.13.
The ratings gap
Barcelona carry a rating of 1971 against 1658 for Sevilla, a gap of 313 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Barcelona's attack should find room against Sevilla's defence, by 323 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Barcelona are on a run
Barcelona arrive on 5 straight wins, part of 5 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.