San Jose Earthquakes vs LAFC

Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 23:30

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Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 48% confidence

Win probability

40%

San Jose Earthquakes wins

27%

Draw

34%

LAFC wins

xG Home

1.35

San Jose Earthquakes

Blowout %

48%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.21

LAFC

Analysis

Our model puts a San Jose Earthquakes win at 39.7% in this MLS fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.35 to 1.21.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1492 against 1500, a gap of 8 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Margin risk

Our blowout flag reads 47.5%: roughly one simulation in 2 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.

Published 12 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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