Rochdale vs Oldham Athletic
Our model puts an Oldham Athletic win at 43.5% in this League Two fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.09 to 1.39.
The ratings gap
Oldham Athletic carry a rating of 1489 against 1340 for Rochdale, a gap of 149 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Oldham Athletic's attack should find room against Rochdale's defence, by 145 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Rochdale are off their season peak
Rochdale peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1340 today, 160 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 27.1%: roughly one simulation in 4 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.