Real Sociedad II vs Mallorca

Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 12:00

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Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 15% confidence

Win probability

19%

Real Sociedad II wins

22%

Draw

59%

Mallorca wins

xG Home

0.97

Real Sociedad II

Blowout %

15%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.90

Mallorca

Analysis

Our model puts a Mallorca win at 58.5% in this Segunda Division fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 0.97 to 1.9.

The ratings gap

Mallorca carry a rating of 1636 against 1486 for Real Sociedad II, a gap of 150 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.

Attack against defence

The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Mallorca's attack should find room against Real Sociedad II's defence, by 100 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.

Published 12 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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