Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano

Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 12:00

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Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 31% confidence

Win probability

40%

Osasuna wins

27%

Draw

33%

Rayo Vallecano wins

xG Home

1.33

Osasuna

Blowout %

31%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.19

Rayo Vallecano

Analysis

Our model puts an Osasuna win at 39.9% in this La Liga fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.33 to 1.19.

Margin risk

Our blowout flag reads 31%: roughly one simulation in 3 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.

Published 12 September 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export