Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City
Our model puts a Nottingham Forest win at 70.8% in this Premier League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.21 to 0.71.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Nottingham Forest at 1.8, which implies about 55.6%. Our model has it at 70.8% — 15.2 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Nottingham Forest carry a rating of 1745 against 1585 for Coventry City, a gap of 160 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Nottingham Forest's attack should find room against Coventry City's defence, by 127 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 59.8%: more than half of all simulations end with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.