Newcastle United vs Hull City
Our model puts a Newcastle United win at 72.8% in this Premier League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.27 to 0.68.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Hull City at 6.0, which implies about 16.7%. Our model has it at 9.7% — 7 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Newcastle United carry a rating of 1804 against 1580 for Hull City, a gap of 224 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Newcastle United's attack should find room against Hull City's defence, by 240 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 66.4%: more than half of all simulations end with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.