New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC

Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 23:30

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Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 50% confidence

Win probability

45%

New England Revolution wins

26%

Draw

28%

Orlando City SC wins

xG Home

1.45

New England Revolution

Blowout %

50%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.09

Orlando City SC

Analysis

Our model puts a New England Revolution win at 45.2% in this MLS fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.45 to 1.09.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1516 against 1510, a gap of 6 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Margin risk

Our blowout flag reads 49.9%: roughly one simulation in 2 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.

Published 12 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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