Mirassol vs Botafogo

Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 20:00

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Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 44% confidence

Win probability

54%

Mirassol wins

24%

Draw

22%

Botafogo wins

xG Home

1.74

Mirassol

Blowout %

44%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.00

Botafogo

Analysis

Our model puts a Mirassol win at 54.2% in this Brasileirao fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.74 to 1.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1510 against 1490, a gap of 20 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Margin risk

Our blowout flag reads 43.9%: roughly one simulation in 2 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.

Published 12 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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