Millwall vs West Ham United
Our model puts a West Ham United win at 49.4% in this Championship fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.12 to 1.65.
The ratings gap
West Ham United carry a rating of 1710 against 1602 for Millwall, a gap of 108 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, West Ham United's attack should find room against Millwall's defence, by 99 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
West Ham United are on a run
West Ham United arrive on 4 straight wins, part of 6 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.