Istanbul Basaksehir vs Genclerbirligi
Our model puts an Istanbul Basaksehir win at 61.5% in this Süper Lig fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.9 to 0.85.
The ratings gap
Istanbul Basaksehir carry a rating of 1618 against 1481 for Genclerbirligi, a gap of 138 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Istanbul Basaksehir's attack should find room against Genclerbirligi's defence, by 196 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 61.2%: more than half of all simulations end with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.