Grimsby Town vs Crawley Town
Our model puts a Grimsby Town win at 60.5% in this League Two fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.91 to 0.9.
The ratings gap
Grimsby Town carry a rating of 1520 against 1373 for Crawley Town, a gap of 147 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Grimsby Town's attack should find room against Crawley Town's defence, by 138 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Crawley Town are off their season peak
Crawley Town peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1373 today, 127 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 61.4%: more than half of all simulations end with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.