Everton vs Ipswich Town
Our model puts an Everton win at 58.7% in this Premier League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.83 to 0.9.
The ratings gap
Everton carry a rating of 1757 against 1616 for Ipswich Town, a gap of 141 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Everton's attack should find room against Ipswich Town's defence, by 151 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 51.9%: more than half of all simulations end with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.