Eldense vs Eibar

Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 16:30

⚡

Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 22% confidence

Win probability

26%

Eldense wins

26%

Draw

48%

Eibar wins

xG Home

1.06

Eldense

Blowout %

22%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.55

Eibar

Analysis

Our model puts an Eibar win at 48.4% in this Segunda Division fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.06 to 1.55.

The ratings gap

Eibar carry a rating of 1571 against 1459 for Eldense, a gap of 111 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.

Eibar are on a run

Eibar arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 3 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.

Published 12 September 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export