Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg
Our model puts a SC Freiburg win at 39.4% in this Bundesliga fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.28 to 1.39.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Eintracht Frankfurt at 2.25, which implies about 44.4%. Our model has it at 34.5% — 9.9 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
SC Freiburg carry a rating of 1750 against 1650 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a gap of 100 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, SC Freiburg's attack should find room against Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, by 152 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
SC Freiburg are on a run
SC Freiburg arrive on 4 straight wins, part of 4 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 31.1%: roughly one simulation in 3 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.