D.C. United vs Charlotte FC

Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 23:30

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Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 33% confidence

Win probability

41%

D.C. United wins

27%

Draw

32%

Charlotte FC wins

xG Home

1.32

D.C. United

Blowout %

33%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.14

Charlotte FC

Analysis

Our model puts a D.C. United win at 40.8% in this MLS fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.32 to 1.14.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1503 against 1516, a gap of 13 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Charlotte FC are hard to beat

Charlotte FC have gone 6 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.

Margin risk

Our blowout flag reads 33.4%: roughly one simulation in 3 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.

Published 12 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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