Cremonese vs Virtus Entella
Our model puts a Cremonese win at 66% in this Serie B fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.05 to 0.79.
The ratings gap
Cremonese carry a rating of 1553 against 1404 for Virtus Entella, a gap of 148 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Cremonese's attack should find room against Virtus Entella's defence, by 108 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Virtus Entella are off their season peak
Virtus Entella peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1404 today, 96 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 58.2%: more than half of all simulations end with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.