Chesterfield vs York City

Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 14:00

⚡

Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 46% confidence

Win probability

49%

Chesterfield wins

26%

Draw

25%

York City wins

xG Home

1.53

Chesterfield

Blowout %

46%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.01

York City

Analysis

Our model puts a Chesterfield win at 49% in this League Two fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.53 to 1.01.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1468 against 1488, a gap of 20 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Margin risk

Our blowout flag reads 46.4%: roughly one simulation in 2 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.

Published 12 September 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export