CF Montréal vs Columbus Crew

Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 23:30

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Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 45% confidence

Win probability

44%

CF Montréal wins

25%

Draw

30%

Columbus Crew wins

xG Home

1.54

CF Montréal

Blowout %

45%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.23

Columbus Crew

Analysis

Our model puts a CF Montréal win at 44.4% in this MLS fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.54 to 1.23.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1483 against 1476, a gap of 6 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Margin risk

Our blowout flag reads 45.3%: roughly one simulation in 2 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.

Published 12 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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