Castellón vs Tenerife

Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 16:30

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Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 40% confidence

Win probability

51%

Castellón wins

26%

Draw

23%

Tenerife wins

xG Home

1.56

Castellón

Blowout %

40%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.96

Tenerife

Analysis

Our model puts a Castellón win at 51% in this Segunda Division fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.56 to 0.96.

Margin risk

Our blowout flag reads 40.3%: roughly one simulation in 2 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.

Published 12 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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