Carrarese vs Benevento
Our model puts a Carrarese win at 40.2% in this Serie B fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.33 to 1.17.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1439 against 1436, a gap of 3 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Carrarese are off their season peak
Carrarese peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1439 today, 61 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 31.6%: roughly one simulation in 3 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.