Cádiz vs Girona

Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 19:00

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Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 16% confidence

Win probability

25%

Cádiz wins

25%

Draw

50%

Girona wins

xG Home

1.07

Cádiz

Blowout %

16%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.63

Girona

Analysis

Our model puts a Girona win at 50% in this Segunda Division fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.07 to 1.63.

The ratings gap

Girona carry a rating of 1632 against 1480 for Cadiz, a gap of 152 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.

Attack against defence

The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Girona's attack should find room against Cádiz's defence, by 112 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.

Published 12 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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