Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town

Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 11:30

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Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 46% confidence

Win probability

45%

Burton Albion wins

26%

Draw

29%

Mansfield Town wins

xG Home

1.50

Burton Albion

Blowout %

46%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.16

Mansfield Town

Analysis

Our model puts a Burton Albion win at 44.9% in this League One fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.5 to 1.16.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1483 against 1505, a gap of 22 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Margin risk

Our blowout flag reads 46.3%: roughly one simulation in 2 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.

Published 12 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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