Burnley vs Derby County
Our model puts a Burnley win at 58.5% in this Championship fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.78 to 0.87.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Burnley's attack should find room against Derby County's defence, by 118 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Burnley are off their season peak
Burnley peaked at 1645 this season and sit at 1591 today, 54 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 49.9%: roughly one simulation in 2 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.