Boulogne vs Nantes
Our model puts a Nantes win at 48.5% in this Ligue 2 fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.1 to 1.59.
The ratings gap
Nantes carry a rating of 1528 against 1434 for Boulogne, a gap of 94 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Boulogne's attack will struggle to break down Nantes's defence, by 108 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Boulogne are off their season peak
Boulogne peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1434 today, 66 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.