Ascoli vs US Avellino

Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 17:30

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Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 36% confidence

Win probability

48%

Ascoli wins

26%

Draw

25%

US Avellino wins

xG Home

1.48

Ascoli

Blowout %

36%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.99

US Avellino

Analysis

Our model puts an Ascoli win at 48.4% in this Serie B fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.48 to 0.99.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1463 against 1475, a gap of 12 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Margin risk

Our blowout flag reads 35.8%: roughly one simulation in 3 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.

Published 12 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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