AS Roma vs Internazionale

Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 16:00

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Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 35% confidence

Win probability

39%

AS Roma wins

26%

Draw

35%

Internazionale wins

xG Home

1.36

AS Roma

Blowout %

35%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.27

Internazionale

Analysis

Our model puts an AS Roma win at 38.9% in this Serie A fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.36 to 1.27.

Attack against defence

The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, AS Roma's attack should find room against Internazionale's defence, by 105 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.

AS Roma are hard to beat

AS Roma have gone 11 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.

Margin risk

Our blowout flag reads 35.1%: roughly one simulation in 3 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.

Market odds

2.45

AS Roma

3.30

Draw

2.65

Internazionale

Published 12 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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