Aris vs Iraklis
Our model puts an Aris win at 85.2% in this Greek Super League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 3.1 to 0.56.
The ratings gap
Aris carry a rating of 1621 against 1487 for Iraklis, a gap of 134 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Iraklis's attack will struggle to break down Aris's defence, by 103 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 83.8%: more than half of all simulations end with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.