New York City FC vs Red Bull New York

Friday, 18 September 2026 at 23:30

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Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 43% confidence

Win probability

50%

New York City FC wins

26%

Draw

25%

Red Bull New York wins

xG Home

1.54

New York City FC

Blowout %

43%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.99

Red Bull New York

Analysis

Our model puts a New York City FC win at 49.7% in this MLS fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.54 to 0.99.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1489 against 1478, a gap of 11 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Margin risk

Our blowout flag reads 42.9%: roughly one simulation in 2 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.

Published 11 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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