Monza vs Sassuolo
Our model puts a Sassuolo win at 42.5% in this Serie A fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.15 to 1.4.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Monza at 2.65, which implies about 37.7%. Our model has it at 31% — 6.7 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Sassuolo carry a rating of 1643 against 1516 for Monza, a gap of 127 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Sassuolo's attack should find room against Monza's defence, by 161 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.