Kasimpasa vs Konyaspor

Friday, 18 September 2026 at 17:00

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Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 37% confidence

Win probability

46%

Kasimpasa wins

26%

Draw

28%

Konyaspor wins

xG Home

1.50

Kasimpasa

Blowout %

37%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.10

Konyaspor

Analysis

Our model puts a Kasimpasa win at 46.2% in this Süper Lig fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.5 to 1.1.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1543 against 1521, a gap of 22 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Margin risk

Our blowout flag reads 36.5%: roughly one simulation in 3 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.

Published 11 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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