Juve Stabia vs Cesena

Friday, 18 September 2026 at 18:30

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Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 30% confidence

Win probability

41%

Juve Stabia wins

27%

Draw

32%

Cesena wins

xG Home

1.34

Juve Stabia

Blowout %

30%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.16

Cesena

Analysis

Our model puts a Juve Stabia win at 40.7% in this Serie B fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.34 to 1.16.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1466 against 1457, a gap of 9 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Margin risk

Our blowout flag reads 29.7%: roughly one simulation in 3 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.

Published 11 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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