Bayern Munich vs 1. FC Union Berlin
Our model puts a Bayern Munich win at 82.3% in this Bundesliga fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 3.1 to 0.71.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Bayern Munich at 1.1, which implies about 90.9%. Our model has it at 82.3% — 8.6 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Bayern Munich carry a rating of 2029 against 1636 for 1. FC Union Berlin, a gap of 394 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Bayern Munich's attack should find room against 1. FC Union Berlin's defence, by 423 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Bayern Munich are hard to beat
Bayern Munich have gone 7 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 86.7%: more than half of all simulations end with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.