Real Sociedad vs AFC Bournemouth
Our model puts an AFC Bournemouth win at 49.5% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.11 to 1.65.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Real Sociedad at 2.75, which implies about 36.4%. Our model has it at 25.9% — 10.5 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
AFC Bournemouth carry a rating of 1804 against 1686 for Real Sociedad, a gap of 118 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, AFC Bournemouth's attack should find room against Real Sociedad's defence, by 196 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.