OFI Crete vs TSG Hoffenheim
Our model puts a TSG Hoffenheim win at 56.4% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 0.83 to 1.64.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price TSG Hoffenheim at 1.43, which implies about 69.9%. Our model has it at 56.4% — 13.5 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
TSG Hoffenheim carry a rating of 1699 against 1494 for OFI Crete, a gap of 204 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, TSG Hoffenheim's attack should find room against OFI Crete's defence, by 260 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.