Juventus vs NEC Nijmegen
Our model puts a Juventus win at 75.5% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.41 to 0.65.
The ratings gap
Juventus carry a rating of 1820 against 1566 for NEC Nijmegen, a gap of 253 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Juventus's attack should find room against NEC Nijmegen's defence, by 247 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 74%: more than half of all simulations end with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.