Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan
Our model puts a Crystal Palace win at 66.1% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.16 to 0.87.
The ratings gap
Crystal Palace carry a rating of 1759 against 1668 for Lech Poznan, a gap of 91 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Crystal Palace's attack should find room against Lech Poznan's defence, by 95 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 53.5%: more than half of all simulations end with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.