Celtic vs Ferencvaros
Our model puts a Celtic win at 70.7% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.37 to 0.82.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Celtic at 1.71, which implies about 58.5%. Our model has it at 70.7% — 12.2 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Celtic carry a rating of 1767 against 1620 for Ferencvaros, a gap of 147 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Celtic's attack should find room against Ferencvaros's defence, by 176 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 72.9%: more than half of all simulations end with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.