Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar

Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 19:00

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Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 48% confidence

Win probability

56%

Sunderland wins

24%

Draw

20%

AZ Alkmaar wins

xG Home

1.70

Sunderland

Blowout %

48%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.91

AZ Alkmaar

Analysis

Our model puts a Sunderland win at 55.5% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.7 to 0.91.

AZ Alkmaar are on a run

AZ Alkmaar arrive on 5 straight wins, part of 11 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.

Margin risk

Our blowout flag reads 47.5%: roughly one simulation in 2 ends with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.

Market odds

1.71

Sunderland

4.00

Draw

4.50

AZ Alkmaar

Published 11 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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