Levante vs Athletic Club

Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 19:30

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Blowout AlertHigh probability of dominant scoreline — 25% confidence

Win probability

36%

Levante wins

27%

Draw

37%

Athletic Club wins

xG Home

1.23

Levante

Blowout %

25%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.26

Athletic Club

Analysis

Our model puts an Athletic Club win at 37.2% in this La Liga fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.23 to 1.26.

Where we disagree with the market

Bookmakers price Athletic Club at 2.25, which implies about 44.4%. Our model has it at 37.2% — 7.2 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.

Market odds

3.15

Levante

3.45

Draw

2.25

Athletic Club

Published 11 September 2026 · aleavici-football

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