Fleetwood Town vs Sheffield United
Our model puts a Sheffield United win at 48.3% in this EFL Cup fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.12 to 1.6.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Sheffield United at 1.59, which implies about 62.9%. Our model has it at 48.3% — 14.6 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Sheffield United carry a rating of 1562 against 1452 for Fleetwood Town, a gap of 109 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Sheffield United's attack should find room against Fleetwood Town's defence, by 141 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Fleetwood Town are hard to beat
Fleetwood Town have gone 11 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Fleetwood Town are off their season peak
Fleetwood Town peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1452 today, 48 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.