Everton vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Our model puts an Everton win at 60.4% in this EFL Cup fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.9 to 0.9.
The ratings gap
Everton carry a rating of 1757 against 1631 for Wolverhampton Wanderers, a gap of 126 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Everton's attack should find room against Wolverhampton Wanderers's defence, by 126 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Margin risk
Our blowout flag reads 54%: more than half of all simulations end with a three-goal margin or more. Finishing gaps that wide make the scoreline far less predictable than the winner.